Term Plan beyond earning age: Is it Worthy?

November 27, 2018

Indian Life insurance landscape has changed a lot in last 2 decades or so, since the private insurers were allowed to operate in India. There was a time, only LIC was there as a monopoly and in the name of term plan, the product basket was near empty. Yes, those of you, who are old enough and might had purchased, there were plans like Bima Kiran, having Sum Assured ranging from few thousands to single digit lakhs. On top of that, this was a RETURN OF PREMIUM PLAN – ROP.

Look at today, we have 24 life insurance companies as on date (Source) doing business in India. Each one of these are having various combinations of Term Plans. One interesting observation caught my eye. Almost all insurers are now offering Term Plans well beyond the Retirement age in India. Ranging from 75 to 80Y age and few insurers are offering plans up to age 99 to 100.

A basic question to my blog readers and this is also the header of this blog post – Is it worthy to have a term plan going well beyond your retirement age, till 75-80-99-100?

To answer the above question, first we need to answer few associated questions?

  1. Why do we need life insurance?
  2. Why do we need purest form of life insurance – Term Cover or Term Plan?
  3. How much sum assured one needs to have in term cover?
  4. Do we need to purchase Riders along with Term cover?
  5. What premium payment term -PPT, should we have for our Term cover?

Let’s discuss the answers for above questions –

  1. To cover the financial loss, of our income, we bring to our families and dependents, resulting out of our DEATH.
  2. The premium for a high sum assured + investment – combo policy will be so high that We can’t afford to pay. Also it’s advisable to keep INSURANCE and INVESTMENT needs separate.
  3. There are various ways to assign Human Life Value but the most simplistic is to have a Sum assured, which can substitute your income, if the same money is kept in a simple product like BANK FIXED DEPOSIT. In simple words, 15-17 times multiple of your yly income can generate the same income, at current Bank FD interest rates of 6-6.5%. One bonus information, Most insurers don’t offer term cover beyond 20 times multiple of your yly income, taken together your all life insurance policies’ sum assured.
  4. Please avoid riders along offered for a premium with your term plan, as these are neither offering adequate money not cover for the intended use and are very restrictive in their own definitions.
  5. If you are a salaried or a professional with a fixed and predictable monthly income, opt for Regular Premium Payment Term. Limited or Single Premium Payment Term should be opted only by those people who are not sure of their future cash flows.

Here comes the interesting part – Your responsibility towards your family or loved ones’ bright future doesn’t end with purchasing merely a Term Plan and paying it’s premium regularly. No. Purchasing the term plan, is merely the first step. Once it’s taken, the logical next step is to start working on creating a corpus, which is large enough to sustain your dependents in your absence, till your desired time. Once this corpus is in place, answer on your own, do you need a TERM COVER?

In several discussions with people, either over phone calls or in our Facebook group – asan ideas for wealth or one to one chats, one thing I noticed – people don’t see it wrong to purchase term cover well beyond earning age and the primary reason given – this sum assured will help a bit or become a gift, to my loved ones (specially the 3rd generation).

My view – If during your earning years, you could not create enough corpus to sustain your own retirement life as well as to leave some inheritance for your next generation, it indicates a failure of financial planning done by you during your productive years – Active Income Earning Years. Barring few exceptional cases where due to late marriage or late child births or any other special family situations, most people will be able to complete their financial obligations towards family members and loved ones, either through active income already or by creating enough corpus for the intended use, if events are to be happened in post retirement life.

Now Sample this, if a 25Y old person purchase a term cover of Rs. 10000000 (One Crore) till age 100, what’s happening in terms of TIME VALUE OF MONEY? We are aware that INFLATION eats away the purchasing power of our money. On a simple note, if inflation is 7%, the Rs. 100 in our pocket today, will only be worth of Rs. 93 (adjusted for 7% inflation) after 1Y, in today’s value. Please go through the attached excel sheet to notice the impact of inflation over your lifetime for your sum assured.

time value of 1 Crore till age 100

Now answer honestly, how much happy will be your loved ones at your age 100, if you gift them money through your DEATH CLAIM which is equal to Rs. 43274 at your age 25? It can’t even cover your FUNERAL EXPENSES.

 

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The Ant and Grasshopper : 21st Century

August 12, 2018

Almost all of us have either read or listen the old story of Ant and Grasshopper. Many of us are now a days aware of jokes created around this simple yet beautiful story. In this blog post, I’m trying to take the old background to convey the point, I want you to understand.

Once upon a time, there were 2 friends – Miss Ant and Mr. Grasshopper. Both belonged to same neighborhood. Both went to same schools and colleges and ended up earning same university degrees. After finishing their college education, both landed into similar job profile but in different companies but in same city.

Mr. Grasshopper was also aware of the FAMILY HISTORY of his forefather, generations ago and the misadventures of that forefather, so from his first paycheck, he started investing for a Goal.

Miss Ant on the other hand was also aware of her family history and to continue the family reputation, legacy, she was equally hard working and laborious like her older generations. She also started saving from her first paycheck, for a financial Goal.

Both were having a common Goal – To create a Corpus of Rs. 10000000 (One Crore) in next 15Y. The readers are thinking till this point, each and everything is common the life of these 2 characters of our story. Where is the difference? Please hold on with me. Here is the difference.

For their future Goal – the expected return figure, Miss Ant opted for was 10% (Post Tax).

Mr. Grasshopper was true to his family legacy and thus opted for 15% (Post Tax) figure.

With the help of so many calculators, excel sheets and more, both came to a conclusion, if no increment is made in these 15 years, the fixed monthly amount to be invested in, to reach the corpus of 1 Crore is as below.

Miss Ant            Rs. 25081

Mr. Grasshopper Rs. 16424.

Real twist in the story comes here on wards. Although these friends were investing their money on monthly basis, regularly but the performance of Market was not in their control and hence the corpus created was as below.

Case-1

Actual performance of market was just 8%. Yes, you read it right – 8% only. So the Corpus value for both friends after 15Y was as below.

Miss Ant            Rs. 8472852

Mr. Grasshopper Rs. 5548348

Case-2

Actual performance of market was 12%. So the Corpus value for both friends after 15Y was as below.

Miss Ant            Rs. 11839590 or 1.18 Crore

Mr. Grasshopper Rs. 7753018 or 

Case-3

Actual performance of market was 18%. So the Corpus value for both friends after 15Y was as below.

Miss Ant            Rs. 19845327 or 2 Crore (almost)

Mr. Grasshopper Rs. 12995481 or 1.3 Crore (almost)

Story ends here but readers of this blog, needs to introspect on their financial life. Are you having Traits of Mr. Grasshopper or you are more similar to Miss Ant?

The lesson – Instead of chasing RETURN from Market, start putting more money to work.


GST on exit load in Mutual Funds.

June 6, 2018

In it’s recent meeting of GST council, it was proposed and accepted to levy GST on the exit load charged by Mutual funds. How it’s going to impact us, the investor? Let’s discuss it and try to understand it here.

Before we move ahead, please do understand, Exit load is always charged on the redemption amount and not on your invested amount. So no matter, you are redeeming in profit or loss, if Exit load is applicable to your redemption, it’ll be levied on your redemption amount.

Let’s assume, we are redeeming Rs. 10000 (ten thousand) and the applicable Exit load is 1%. So here goes the calculations for pre GST and Post GST situations.

Case 1 – Pre GST 

A. Redemption amount = 10000

B. Exit load @ 1% = 100

C. Net redemption amount in your bank account = A – B = 10000 – 100 = 9900

Case 2 – Post GST

A. Redemption amount = 10000

B. Exit load @ 1% = 100

C. GST @18% of B = 18

D. Net redemption amount in your bank account = A – (B+C) = 10000 – (100+18) = 9882

Now one interesting thing for your information, the exit load is not the profit of AMC. As per SEBI mandate, it’s added back as part of assets of fund for the remaining investors. So, what’s the difference now for this exit load addition, for old investors, who are not redeeming?

Nothing. That 100 in our example was added in pre GST era as well as now also in Post GST era.

One important point, the exit load and GST there on, does not impact your Short or Long Term Capital Gain Tax liability. For tax calculation, your redemption amount is still 10000 in our example.


The TAX SAVING in NPS – A Calculation

January 15, 2018

A lot of young earners are fascinated with the additional tax saving offered by NPS for an investment of Rs. 50000, every FY under section 80CCD(1b). Here I’m going to check the impact of TAX saving. Are we really saving tax today?
To get the answer or to start a calculation, few assumptions are made. Here are the assumptions for your kind considerations – the readers of this blog.

The investor aka NPS subscriber –

  1. Age 30Y old at the time of first investment in NPS.
  2. Only Rs. 50000 yly is invested at the start of year, here year means Financial Year.
  3. The retirement is taken at age 60Y. So the total investment period is 30Y.
  4. The corpus is growing at 12% rate in all these 30Y.
  5. Total amount over these 30Y, invested in NPS is Rs. 1500000 (50000*30 = 1500000).
  6. The maturity value of NPS at age 60Y is Rs. 13514630
  7. The 40% corpus is withdrawn tax free. Another 20% is withdrawn taxable and remaining 40% is used to purchase annuity from LIC under it’s immediate annuity plan, where, the Annuity (pension) is payable Yly for both husband and wife and after death of both, the purchase price is returned to to nominee/legal heirs. Point to be noted, the data available on LIC site, showing an annuity rate of 6.3% (roughly) for age 60Y person.
    Investment year Maturity year Year to remain invested The growth rate @ 12% Growth multiple Amount Invested Corpus for each individual investment Tax saving in 30% tax slab. Tax saving in 20% tax slab.
    2018 2048 30 1.12 29.95992 50000 1497996.1 15450 10300
    2019 2048 29 1.12 26.74993 50000 1337496.5 15450 10300
    2020 2048 28 1.12 23.88387 50000 1194193.3 15450 10300
    2021 2048 27 1.12 21.32488 50000 1066244 15450 10300
    2022 2048 26 1.12 19.04007 50000 952003.61 15450 10300
    2023 2048 25 1.12 17.00006 50000 850003.22 15450 10300
    2024 2048 24 1.12 15.17863 50000 758931.45 15450 10300
    2025 2048 23 1.12 13.55235 50000 677617.36 15450 10300
    2026 2048 22 1.12 12.10031 50000 605015.5 15450 10300
    2027 2048 21 1.12 10.80385 50000 540192.41 15450 10300
    2028 2048 20 1.12 9.646293 50000 482314.65 15450 10300
    2029 2048 19 1.12 8.612762 50000 430638.08 15450 10300
    2030 2048 18 1.12 7.689966 50000 384498.29 15450 10300
    2031 2048 17 1.12 6.866041 50000 343302.04 15450 10300
    2032 2048 16 1.12 6.130394 50000 306519.68 15450 10300
    2033 2048 15 1.12 5.473566 50000 273678.29 15450 10300
    2034 2048 14 1.12 4.887112 50000 244355.61 15450 10300
    2035 2048 13 1.12 4.363493 50000 218174.66 15450 10300
    2036 2048 12 1.12 3.895976 50000 194798.8 15450 10300
    2037 2048 11 1.12 3.47855 50000 173927.5 15450 10300
    2038 2048 10 1.12 3.105848 50000 155292.41 15450 10300
    2039 2048 9 1.12 2.773079 50000 138653.94 15450 10300
    2040 2048 8 1.12 2.475963 50000 123798.16 15450 10300
    2041 2048 7 1.12 2.210681 50000 110534.07 15450 10300
    2042 2048 6 1.12 1.973823 50000 98691.134 15450 10300
    2043 2048 5 1.12 1.762342 50000 88117.084 15450 10300
    2044 2048 4 1.12 1.573519 50000 78675.968 15450 10300
    2045 2048 3 1.12 1.404928 50000 70246.4 15450 10300
    2046 2048 2 1.12 1.2544 50000 62720 15450 10300
    2047 2048 1 1.12 1.12 50000 56000 15450 10300
    1500000 13514630 463500 309000

    7. Now check the next table.   Here it goes.

    Tax free 40% withdrawal Taxable 20% withdrawal 40% Annuity purchase amount Yly annuity amount
    5405852.1 2702926.1 5405852  340713
    Tax @30% on withdrawal 835204.15 105280.3
    Tax @20% on withdrawal 556802.77 70186.85

    From the 2nd table How many of you can see the impact of TODAY’s TAX SAVING resulting in a larger TAX outgo tomorrow?
    Point to be noted, the tax outgo on annuity is lifelong. Year after year, till the couple is surviving.


Asking right questions

November 9, 2015

Many readers of this blog are aware of PV Subramanyam. He writes a blog http://www.subramoney.com Many a times, he has asked to readers on asking right questions  to the advisers or planners or agents or sellers of financial products. Why does he say so?

My dear friends, personal finance is also about asking the right questions. Below is an old joke. Please read and understand it.

Two men went into the church and questioned to father.

Man 1 – Father, I’m drinking my glass of wine and suddenly, there is a desire within me to remember God, to pray him. Should I do it?

Father’s Ans. – My dear Son, God can be remembered any time. Please feel free to do so.

Man 2 – Father, I’m praying to God, remembering him and suddenly there is a desire within me to have a glass of wine. Should I do it?

Father’s Ans. – How dare you to do it? When you are in prayer, you should only remember God and nothing else.

Joke is over. Can you people get the point, this joke is about? Both the men were doing the same thing. Mixing drinking and prayer. Yet the answers to both were different.

Now go out and search for right questions within you, so that next time you get the right answers.


Why RBI is not printing more money to pay off all the loan of World Bank and IMF?

June 12, 2014

This post is not my work. It’s Copy-pasted from Quora. The original Post is here.

A very simple and ordinary question (actually this question is far more serious than it looks in first glance) was asked. Here is the question-

Question – Reserve Bank of India (RBI): Why can’t Indian government pay world bank loan by just printing money?

RBI can print as much money as it wants. Why can’t it print enough money to pay off all the loan that has to be paid to World Bank?
And here starts the answer given by Mr. Akshat Agarwal.
Answer – Let us say you are a farmer and you have mango plantation (keeping in line with the season’s favorite  :P). You do hard labor and work day and night and grow 100 kg mangoes every year.

Now, one cannot live his life eating only mangoes, And since mango is a good seasonal fruit, good for health, and not to mention utterly delicious, there would be others who’d happily trade their farm products, say wheat, for some of your mangoes. Realizing this, you decide to exchange your mangoes for other products. You tell about it to your friend who has wheat farms. Incidentally, he happens to be a mango lover like me and together you develop a rate of exchange, with mutual understanding of course in this example, say, 5 kg mangoes for 10 kg of wheat. You give him 10 kg mangoes and get 20 kg wheat for your family, which you assume should suffice for 6 months. You do the same thing with your other friends as well in exchange for pulses, rice, vegetables etc.

Now, past 6 months comes winter, and your supplies have started to diminish. Moreover, you do not have any mangoes to offer in exchange for wheat and other commodities. But without the commodities you wont survive for next six months. Now what should, or rather, what could you trade in exchange for wheat?

You find a solution. You go to your best friend who trusts you a lot, and you promise to give him 5 kg of mangoes next summer for 10 kg of wheat right now. He thinks about it for a while. There are of course things to be concerned here. What if you refuse to give him mangoes later? What if the mangoes you give him aren’t good quality? What if next year is a drought and there are no mangoes?

Let us say for the sake of simplicity here that your friend here thinks about it but on goodwill and years of friendship, he trusts you and agrees. Similarly, you go to your other friends, gain their confidence and promise them some mangoes next summer for providing you with supplies right now. Now, what you have done here is that you have developed a trading system wherein you trade items and commodities for other items and commodities. And the trading currency is none other than the “items and commodities“.

But now, since you are trading with so many different people at different time, it is getting difficult for you to keep track of how much mangoes you owe to whom. So what you do is that you start handing over promissory notes to the people you trade with, with your sign on it and the amount of mangoes you owe them. So next summer, whenever you have mangoes harvested, people come to you, show you the promissory note with your sign on it, and take the mangoes.

But there is a problem with this system: you are promising X kg of mangoes which you have not harvested yet, i.e., which do not exist. Similarly you would have supplied mangoes to someone for a certain commodity he’ll have in future but doesn’t have it now. And then there is always a risk factor, i.e., next year maybe a dry one and you may not have enough mangoes to trade.

Realizing this, you are worried now. You need a damage control. You consult this with your trusted friend and ask him how to avoid possible damage. Now this friend of yours is quite a trader himself and has traveled many cities and traded with many people. He tells you not to worry about it and that he’ll let you on a little secret. He explains it to you how people will need mango no matter what: after all it is a seasonal fruit and very delicious. Now if there is less growth of mangoes next year, then he can ask to negotiate exchange rates in his favor, i.e., more commodities for same amount of mangoes. Simply put, due to scarcity, his mangoes will become costly.

You get it a little bit, but you are still confused. You wonder how will you negotiate rates when you do not know how much mangoes you are going to harvest next year; how can you negotiate when there is uncertainty? Your friend smiles, and tells you that you can. He suggests you to issue only a certain value of promissory notes, lets say  1000, and then do the trading with these notes after declaring their new meaning to the traders. These 1000 notes will represent 100% of your harvest, no mater how much you harvest. So if there is a guy with your promissory notes valuing to 100, he”ll have 10% of your harvest next summer, no matter how much you harvest. He can also decide to not exchange it for mangoes next year when there is a drought, and wait for next to next year hoping for more amount of mangoes then. Lets call your promissory notes as Mango Currency (MC)

All goes good and the mangoes, being good quality and sweeter than its competitors, are valued more. People want to buy mangoes from you even if they have to pay more. This means the value of MC gets more, only a few people can afford it. The very lower class, who wants to eat mangoes but cannot get hold of MC due to its high value is suffering. This also causes you loss in business since people are now holding MC instead of trading it for mangoes since the value is increasing. Since mangoes are not being traded, they are rotting in the collecting compound with very less people to buy them, causing you huge loss. You now need to keep the value of MC in check so that people do not hold up to it.

You go to your friend again and consult him on how to keep value of MC in check. He tells you to simply issue more promissory notes. Since the total sum of promissory notes is equal to 100 % of your harvest, if you issue 1000 more promissory notes in addition to the initial 1000 that you’ve had, the value of MC would be halved. 100 MC that was 10% of the harvest would now only be 5% of your harvest. (This is also how RBI keeps the value of Rupee under check, else Economic activity of country would go down)

Now you have developed a good trade system and also know how to keep the value of MC under check by regulating the supply of promissory notes. Now you decide to expand your business. You go to your best friend who deals in wheat and has currency WC (Wheat Currency). He is already doing very good in business and has surplus money. You tell him about your plans to expand our business and your requirement of more money for expansion purpose. He listens to you and agrees to lend you some money at certain interest rate: he already has enough money and extra money sitting at home isn’t earning him anything, so lending it to you for certain interest seems a good deal.

You borrow 500 WC from him. Now WC is quite strong in market. So much that 500 WC costs around 1000 MC (how much % of wheat harvest it represents doesn’t matter).

Now, you use up all the WC for expansion but suffer heavy losses. All the WC went down into the drain. You bought some stuff from it and have it still, but it is not bringing you any revenue and nobody is ready to buy it back. You are now left with only a few MC (remember, your currency is also floating in the market; you have maybe 1200 MC at hand). To pay back 500 WC, you need 1000 MC. But if you give 1000 MC right now, your remaining business will not be able to sustain itself with only 200 MC at disposal and you’ll eventually end up bankrupt.

You now think about possible way out. You plan to issue 2000 MC more, exchange 1000 MC for WC and return the loan. But if you issue more MC, the value of MC will be halved. Moreover, you can not think of cheating because the value of various currencies is now checked by Association of Auditors and you need to report any more printing of currency to them before it can be floated in the market, and all the currencies are numbered to keep the authenticity in check

Basically, you are now left with only one option: to try to get your act together and grow your business back to what it was, and then further more to get enough MC with sufficient value, to be able to return the loan amount.

Now in the above scenario, lets replace you with our country India, and replace mangoes you harvest with the economic activity that takes place in country; and replace your promissory notes, valuing to 100% of your harvest, to 100% of the economic activity in the country.

Now, back to your questionWhat happens when RBI prints more money to pay off bank loans? You should be able to guess it. More the money printed, lesser the value of currency. Money flowing in the country is nothing but standardized promissory notes issued by RBI. They are equivalent to the total economic activity of the country. If the economic activity does not increase in proportion to the money printed by RBI, the value of Indian Rupee will go down.

And obviously, value of MC will go down with respect to promissory notes issued by other people for other commodities. So when value of Rupee goes down, it does w.r.t other currencies, USD being one of them.

Its not difficult to guess that loans provided by World Bank are in USD. If money is printed to pay off the loan, value of Rupee goes down, which means you need more Indian Rupee to buy USD. As you can see, you can not repay the loan unless youactually have the money, over and above what you ‘ll need to run the country.

So my dear blog readers, What’s your take on this answer? Please update me with your comments.

 


Post Retirement Planning

May 11, 2014

The Idea of this post came from here. Dear Viren Phansalkar requested for a post on Post Retirement Planning. A lot of articles have been written on pre retirement planning. How one should invest, where to invest, when to start, when to stop, when to switch for a wonderful retirement. All this stuff is concentrated on how to prepare your cake to eat in your post retirement life. But not much info is there on how to deploy the corpus post retirement to earn return as well as income so that corpus can sustain the expenses till death which is going to be some 25-40 years away in post retirement life.

Few good posts are available with important calculators on dear Pattabiraman’s frrefincal.com Here are 2 such posts.

http://freefincal.com/the-retirement-bucket-strategy-simulator/

&

http://freefincal.com/income-ladder-calculator/

Few days back we also have a detailed group discussion in our FB group for a case study on post retirement planning. There can be multiple ways to deploy ones money for consumption in post retirement life. But the important thing is, the corpus should outlived the investor and spouse. In case the corpus deplete well before the actual death of investor (including spouse’s death), the deployment of money was not proper we can say.

Now problem in post retirement planning is complex due to 2 things.

1. Inflation

2. Risk Tolerance

1. Inflation – it’s the single biggest enemy to any retirement portfolio in post retired life. Can any one of us imagine the impact of inflation in just 10Y time frame on a person from age 60 to 70? Most of you ‘ll quickly put a basic figure like 5-6-7-8-9 or 10% for retail level inflation. Is it the only inflation? Certainly not. The biggest impact of inflation ‘lll come in the form of healthcare cost. Interestingly this may anywhere from 15 to 25% and even more if health condition is not good. People may say that health insurance may take care off such inflation. Really? Try to read the queries on various forums where people want to purchase health insurance either for their own or for parents. Most of the time, the covers are either not available for the required sum assured or come with a hefty prem.

2. Risk Tolerance – When we are in job, we can bear few bad years of loss on our portfolio as we have both (time as well as resources – fresh money) to counter these loss. Once we set our feet in sunset years, neither we have enough time on our hand nor the resources – fresh money to overcome such loss on portfolio. This situation severely restricts the portfolio creation and deployment. So in a sense our risk tolerance level comes down to a very low point. This low risk tolerance may not allow to deploy more money in growth assets as safety of capital is prime importance here.

A very  generic and crude solution is to split the whole corpus in following manner (what dear Pattu called bucketing).

1. 1 year equal expenses in SB account

2. Next 2 years equal expenses in FDs and liquid funds

3. Year 4 to 10 years’ expenses in FDs, short term funds and Arbitrage funds.

4. Year 10-20 years’ expenses in instruments at 3 above as well  as add some Eq. to provide growth here.

5. Year 20+ years’ expenses in instruments + higher allocation in Eq.

I repeat the above solution is very generic in nature and the things should be done as per each individual’s own situation.

 

Please feel free to share your views in comments below.